Climate is a very complicated matter of which experts and novices can pick their preferred research results to fabricate a more or less devastating view of our future. And everyone will believe them, especially the non-physicists (and there are a lot of them). Scientists, pressure groups and politicians have found a new man-made disaster that’s awaiting us and for which drastic measures have to be taken to stop this evil. Another reason to show man’s superiority.
Some scientists and citizens, in general, have their doubts though about some of the assumptions political influenced experts, as they see it, have written. For example, the basic idea that more man-made CO2 emissions cause increasing temperatures is not very convincing if the Vostok ice core research1 shows that “variations in CO2 and CH4 are both caused by global temperature change and freeze-thaw cycles at high latitudes. These natural geochemical cycles make it inevitable that CO2 and CH4 will correlate with temperature. It is therefore totally invalid to use this relationship as evidence for CO2 forcing of climate, especially since the onset of glaciations, there is no correlation at all.” This may sound convincing; it’s a bit more complicated though. Norwegian researcher Roger Olson explains.
“This is a well-known non-argument based on lack of understanding of feedback loops and multiple causation. In the absence of anthropogenic forcing, of course CO2 does not drive temperature cycles. The glacial cycle is driven by orbital changes (the Milankovitch cycles) and longer-term changes by the changing luminosity of the Sun, movement of continental plates, changes in life on Earth and so on. CO2 follows and amplifies these changes along with all the other causal elements in the system. CO2 is both a feedback and a forcing power. If you raise the temperature during a deglaciation then CO2 also rises, reinforcing the warming. But if, as now, you artificially raise CO2 independent of all other elements then that also causes a forcing, and some of the other feedbacks will also be positive and will follow.”
Another group of scientists produced a documentary named ‘The Great Global Warming Swindle’ (2007). Apart from different interpretations of climate changes they put a lot of emphasis on solar activity which, according to them, is far more influential on global warming and cooling than any other man-made or natural activity on Earth. They even prognosticate a mini glacial period in the 2020s.
According to experts, from 1880 to 2016 CO2 emissions rose from 200 to 400 ppm while at the same time average temperatures rose steadily 1.2 degrees Celsius. For comparison, during ice ages and warm periods for the past 800,000 years, the CO2 levels varied between 175 and 300 ppm. It is not strange therefore to think that human activities are responsible for unusually high CO2 levels and increasing temperatures.
To make matters worse, forest fires, man-made or natural, are the most carbon emission causing events in the world. Preventing and controlling these disasters is a major assignment, not only for firefighters.
The whole point of the differences mentioned above, and there are more, is that they are based on mistrust, scientifically and politically, and the assumption that only one explanation is valuable and acceptable. The man-made version clearly has won the battle and only time will tell who is right. We are talking about a very long time: maybe hundreds of years ahead. But there is more. If in Europe the man-made emissions are brought down to a minimum, unchanged emissions in the USA, Russia and China would made the European efforts fruitless.
1 In January 1998, the collaborative ice-drilling project between Russia, the United States, and France at the Russian Vostok station in East Antarctica yielded the deepest ice core ever recovered, reaching a depth of 3,623 m. Ice cores are unique with their entrapped air inclusions enabling direct records of past changes in atmospheric trace-gas composition.